The Singapore summit. Did Kim Jong-un win?

A number of critical voices have contended that Kim Jong-un ‘won’ the negotiations in Singapore, that he has achieved everything he wanted, whereas the US may stand to lose.
In a short-sighted, limited perspective, this might be true. Trump has declared that he is dropping the ‘war games’, meaning the joint military exercises with South Korea, whereas Kim has only stated that he will ‘work for’ a denuclearized Korean peninsula. The agreement is however meant to start processes that will take a long time, and an early concession from Trump can easily be reversed, should Jong-un fail to honour his commitment.
Some have also suggested that Jong-un may now turn to his neighbours, primarily China, and try to normalize trade while continuing a shallow dialogue with the US. In principle this could also happen, but only for a limited time. The US is hardly going to sit and watch if it becomes clear that Jong-un is only playing a game. If so, Trump will obviously resume former tactics, which are likely to bring the situation back to where it was. China will again be under pressure to curb cooperation with DPRK, and Kim’s chances of development and security will be squandered for the foreseeable future.

Others have observed that the agreement is vague and broad, offering no framework or concrete plans. Expecting a detailed outcome of this summit is however to turn the process on its head. Discussions of over-arching goals and establishment of a good faith atmosphere, are simply a natural start of complex negotiations.

Personally I welcome the agreement as a starting point of a process, which is the only outcome one could hope for at this stage. Much can go wrong. Jong-un will for instance depend on the support of DPRK’s military establishment but I am cautiously optimistic for the following reasons:
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Both parties have a lot to gain by following up.
Trump needs a success. This is about the abysmal outcome of the recent G7 summit and the upcoming mid-term elections. If he ever is to prove himself as a negotiator, it has to be now.
Jong-un has the chance of taking his country into a more successful future in terms of development and security. The man who has been an international pariah since he took over as a state leader, has now got a taste  of popularity, even being received as a rock-star by the Singaporeans. The future holds more of the same if he follows up. This is a huge upside, adding to the possibility of ending isolation and poverty.

Trump has this time applied social psychology wisely. He has offered Jong-un respect, a very attractive asset for a man of Jong-un’s background. He has also used role expectations for what they are worth. Treating Jong-un as a responsible statesman, he demonstrates that he trusts him to follow up and take action. Being trusted and respected is a highly motivating factor for anyone of us. Jong-un has also added to this factor by stating that the world is going to see great change.
 
If looking at the military establishment of DPRK, we do not know much about attitudes and thinking, but they are probably aware that much of the top leadership in other ex-communist countries has become seriously rich.
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Some criticism is not about the chances of success but relates to DPRK’s horrible human rights record. Has Trump betrayed the tens of thousands of political prisoners in the country? In my view not. During the stalemate marking the two countries’ interaction in the past decades, the US has had no influence on the human rights situation whatsoever, and at this summit denuclearisation had to be the main topic. In a situation where DPRK opens up to the world and dialogue develops, chances of applying such influence will however emerge.